International Friendly

Nov 16, 2022 at 7.30pm UK

Soldier Field

Mexico
1 - 2
Sweden

Vega (60')
Vega (82')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Rohden (54'), Svanberg (84')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's International Friendlies clash between Mexico and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mexico 4-0 Iraq
Wednesday, November 9 at 3am in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	0	0	0
2	Mexico	0	0	0
3	Poland	0	0	0
4	Saudi Arabia	0	0	0

Sweden

All competitions

Last Game: Sweden 1-1 Slovenia
Tuesday, September 27 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Serbia	0	0	0
3	Norway	0	0	0
4	Slovenia	0	0	0

Mexico were much better in the attacking third a week ago, but they were playing a side in Iraq who are not nearly as well-organised defensively as the Swedes are, and it seems as though El Tri are missing a midfield general who can take control of a game. On the opposite side, Sweden seem to have lost some confidence since missing the World Cup, and we do not expect they will find too many openings on Wednesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 55.73%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Sweden had a probability of 20.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Sweden win it was 0-1 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Sweden
55.73% ( -0.01)	23.83% ( 0.01)	20.43% ( 0)

Both teams to score 49.83% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.43% (

-0.02)

50.57% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.51% (

-0.02)

72.49% (

0.02)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82% (

-0.01)

17.99% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.14% (

-0.02)

48.85% (

0.02)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.77% (

-0.01)

39.23% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.06% (

-0.01)

75.94% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Mexico 55.73%

Sweden 20.43%

Draw 23.82%

Mexico	Draw	Sweden
1-0 @ 12.1% 2-0 @ 10.38% 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.94% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.55% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.38% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 3.4% Total : 55.73%	1-1 @ 11.32% 0-0 @ 7.06% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0) Other @ 0.9% Total : 23.82%	0-1 @ 6.61% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.3% 0-2 @ 3.09% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.65% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.4% Total : 20.43%