Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 20, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

A. Le Coq Arena

Estonia
0 - 3
Belgium

Sinyavskiy (23'), Ojamaa (27'), Tunjov (73')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Lukaku (37', 40'), Bakayoko (90')
Castagne (4'), Vranckx (22')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Estonia and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Azerbaijan 1-1 Estonia
Saturday, June 17 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	3	4	7
2	Belgium	2	3	4
3	Sweden	2	2	3
4	Estonia	2	-1	1
5	Azerbaijan	3	-8	1

Belgium

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Belgium 1-1 Austria
Saturday, June 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	3	4	7
2	Belgium	2	3	4
3	Sweden	2	2	3
4	Estonia	2	-1	1
5	Azerbaijan	3	-8	1

Both teams play offensive 3-5-2 formations, which has helped create very open matches when these two teams have met in recent years. However, despite missing Kevin De Bruyne through injury, Belgium clearly possess far more individual quality and they should comfortably win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 50.56%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.34%) and 1-2 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Estonia win it was 1-0 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
Estonia	Draw	Belgium
22.6% ( -21.33)	26.85% ( 5.14)	50.56% ( 16.19)

Both teams to score 44.19% (

-25.59)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.54% (

-29.62)

59.46% (

29.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.18% (

-28.83)

79.82% (

28.83)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.91% (

-27.59)

42.1% (

27.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.48% (

-36.02)

78.52% (

36.03)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.32% (

-5.3)

23.69% (

5.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.2% (

-8.28)

57.8% (

8.28)

Score Analysis

Estonia 22.6%

Belgium 50.55%

Draw 26.84%

Estonia	Draw	Belgium
1-0 @ 8.63% ( 3.48) 2-1 @ 5.38% ( -3.04) 2-0 @ 3.73% ( -1.24) 3-1 @ 1.55% ( -3.87) 3-2 @ 1.12% ( -3.47) 3-0 @ 1.08% ( -2.12) Other @ 1.12% Total : 22.6%	1-1 @ 12.42% ( 3.7) 0-0 @ 9.97% ( 7.31) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( -3.26) Other @ 0.58% Total : 26.84%	0-1 @ 14.36% ( 9.85) 0-2 @ 10.34% ( 6.52) 1-2 @ 8.95% ( 1.57) 0-3 @ 4.97% ( 2.81) 1-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( -2.17) 0-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.87) 1-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.22) Other @ 2.45% Total : 50.55%