Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 47.52%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Casa Pia in this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Casa Pia |
47.52% ( 0.6) | 25.41% ( -0.14) | 27.07% ( -0.46) |
Both teams to score 52.38% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.14% ( 0.27) | 50.86% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.26% ( 0.24) | 72.74% ( -0.24) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.59% ( 0.38) | 21.41% ( -0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.59% ( 0.59) | 54.41% ( -0.59) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.65% ( -0.22) | 33.35% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.02% ( -0.24) | 69.97% ( 0.24) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.42% Total : 47.52% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.14% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.11% 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.41% Total : 27.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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