Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.64%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 12.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.35%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Boavista | Draw | Porto |
12.49% ( -0.46) | 18.87% ( -0.03) | 68.64% ( 0.49) |
Both teams to score 48.29% ( -1.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.36% ( -1.01) | 43.63% ( 1.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.97% ( -1) | 66.03% ( 1) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.65% ( -1.39) | 45.35% ( 1.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.79% ( -1.12) | 81.21% ( 1.11) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.36% ( -0.16) | 11.64% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.33% ( -0.34) | 36.66% ( 0.34) |
Score Analysis |
Boavista | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.17% Total : 12.49% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.8% Total : 18.87% | 0-2 @ 12.2% ( 0.38) 0-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 8.75% ( 0.22) 1-3 @ 6.92% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 4.71% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 3.72% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.14) 0-5 @ 2.03% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.6% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.48% Total : 68.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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