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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 19.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Bristol Rovers win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
59.25% ( -0) | 21.7% ( -0) | 19.05% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 54.36% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.57% ( 0.01) | 43.43% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.18% ( 0.02) | 65.82% ( -0.01) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.7% ( 0) | 14.3% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.89% ( 0.01) | 42.11% ( -0.01) |
Bristol Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.43% ( 0.02) | 36.57% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.64% ( 0.02) | 73.36% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
1-0 @ 10.17% 2-1 @ 9.95% 2-0 @ 9.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.41% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.14% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.12% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.22% 5-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.87% Total : 59.25% | 1-1 @ 10.23% 0-0 @ 5.23% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.7% | 0-1 @ 5.26% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.15% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.65% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.73% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 19.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 42 |
3 | Wrexham | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 42 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 39 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 36 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 31 |
7 | Reading | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 31 |
9 | Barnsley | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 30 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 27 |
12 | Blackpool | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 27 |
14 | Stevenage | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 26 |
15 | Leyton Orient | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 25 |
16 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 24 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 23 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 22 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 19 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 17 |
23 | Burton Albion | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 12 |
> League One Full Table |