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League One
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League One | Gameweek 25
Jan 2, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Accrington Stanley

Derby
4 - 0
Accrington

Barkhuizen (7', 46'), Hourihane (16'), McGoldrick (45+2' pen.)
Smith (11'), Sibley (29'), Forsyth (62')
Osula (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Whalley (13'), Rodgers (22'), Fernandes (35')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Accrington Stanley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Cambridge
Friday, December 30 at 7.45pm in League One

Accrington Stanley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Morecambe 2-0 Accrington
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Accrington Stanley

 Derby have proven to be a tough team to beat, and after winning their last two home matches, we think that they will continue their impressive home form by recording a victory over an Accrington side who have won only one of their last 11 league games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 17.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
61.03% (0.132 0.13) 21.6% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 17.37% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 51.47% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.32% (0.052999999999997 0.05)45.68% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32% (0.050999999999998 0.05)68% (-0.052000000000007 -0.05)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.52% (0.057000000000002 0.06)14.48% (-0.058 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.54% (0.112 0.11)42.46% (-0.114 -0.11)
Accrington Stanley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.19% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)39.81% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.52% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)76.48% (0.061999999999998 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 61.02%
    Accrington Stanley 17.37%
    Draw 21.6%
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
1-0 @ 11.13% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 10.76% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.91%
3-0 @ 6.93% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.39% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.35% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.09% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.94% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.29% (0.01 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.19% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 61.02%
1-1 @ 10.26% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.57% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 21.6%
0-1 @ 5.31% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.73% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.45% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.4% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 17.37%

How you voted: Derby vs Accrington

Derby County
93.1%
Draw
3.4%
Accrington Stanley
3.4%
29
Head to Head
Oct 15, 2022 3pm
Accrington
0-3
Derby
Osula (15', 39'), Barkhuizen (90+8')
Cashin (28')
Jan 26, 2019 12.30pm
Fourth Round
Accrington
0-1
Derby

Barlaser (3')
Barlaser (59')
Waghorn (78')
Bogle (86'), Jozefzoon (90'), Nugent (90')
Bogle (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham27196246192763
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe29178455302559
3Wrexham29167643251855
4Stockport CountyStockport29148744281650
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield28146841261548
6Leyton Orient281351040251544
7Charlton AthleticCharlton2812883628844
8Reading28135104341244
9Bolton WanderersBolton29135114343044
10Barnsley29127104139243
11Stevenage2711792725240
12Lincoln CityLincoln29109103534139
13Blackpool2891184140138
14Mansfield TownMansfield27114123534137
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham28107113333037
16Wigan AthleticWigan2897122728-134
17Exeter CityExeter2995153346-1332
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Northampton TownNorthampton2979132845-1730
20Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
21Burton Albion29510143044-1425
22Crawley TownCrawley2766152748-2124
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2865172848-2023
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2857162950-2122
> League One Full Table


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