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Championship header 2

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League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
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Bolton
0 - 0
Derby


Bradley (61'), Aimson (89')
FT

Forsyth (26')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Exeter
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Forest Green
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Derby County

 The two teams are very evenly matched, as indicated by their league positions, so it is difficult to pick a winner on Boxing Day. As such, we expect that the match will finish as a draw, with both sides maintaining their place in the League One playoffs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
47.08% (0.90000000000001 0.9) 26.7% (0.061 0.06) 26.22% (-0.956 -0.96)
Both teams to score 47.9% (-0.88099999999999 -0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.64% (-0.784 -0.78)56.36% (0.78599999999999 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.62% (-0.637 -0.64)77.39% (0.64 0.64)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.05% (0.085000000000008 0.09)23.95% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.82% (0.12 0.12)58.18% (-0.118 -0.12)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.99% (-1.225 -1.23)37.01% (1.228 1.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.2% (-1.238 -1.24)73.8% (1.242 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 47.07%
    Derby County 26.22%
    Draw 26.7%
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.66% (0.4 0.4)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.313 0.31)
2-1 @ 9% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.159 0.16)
3-1 @ 4.29% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.54% (0.06 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.53% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 47.07%
1-1 @ 12.59% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.86% (0.264 0.26)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.144 -0.14)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 26.7%
0-1 @ 8.81% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 6.26% (-0.217 -0.22)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.162 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.07% (-0.144 -0.14)
2-3 @ 1.48% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.45% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 26.22%

How you voted: Bolton vs Derby

Bolton Wanderers
38.0%
Draw
24.0%
Derby County
38.0%
50
Head to Head
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
Apr 9, 2016 3pm
Derby
4-1
Bolton
Russell (13', 77'), Ince (38'), Butterfield (69')
Thorne (81')
Clough (73' pen.)
Vela (21'), Moxey (63')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham21126331141742
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Lincoln CityLincoln218762825331
7Reading209473030031
8Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
9Barnsley218672930-130
10Mansfield TownMansfield198472322128
11Charlton AthleticCharlton207672319427
12Blackpool207672931-227
13Exeter CityExeter208391922-327
14Stevenage197571517-226
15Leyton Orient207492320325
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
17Wigan AthleticWigan206681918124
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham196581921-223
19Bristol Rovers2064101829-1122
20Northampton TownNorthampton2156102134-1321
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion2026121732-1512
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2033142141-2012
> League One Full Table


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