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League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
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Bolton
0 - 0
Derby


Bradley (61'), Aimson (89')
FT

Forsyth (26')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Exeter
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Forest Green
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Derby County

 The two teams are very evenly matched, as indicated by their league positions, so it is difficult to pick a winner on Boxing Day. As such, we expect that the match will finish as a draw, with both sides maintaining their place in the League One playoffs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
47.08% (0.90000000000001 0.9) 26.7% (0.061 0.06) 26.22% (-0.956 -0.96)
Both teams to score 47.9% (-0.88099999999999 -0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.64% (-0.784 -0.78)56.36% (0.78599999999999 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.62% (-0.637 -0.64)77.39% (0.64 0.64)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.05% (0.085000000000008 0.09)23.95% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.82% (0.12 0.12)58.18% (-0.118 -0.12)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.99% (-1.225 -1.23)37.01% (1.228 1.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.2% (-1.238 -1.24)73.8% (1.242 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 47.07%
    Derby County 26.22%
    Draw 26.7%
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.66% (0.4 0.4)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.313 0.31)
2-1 @ 9% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.159 0.16)
3-1 @ 4.29% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.54% (0.06 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.53% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 47.07%
1-1 @ 12.59% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.86% (0.264 0.26)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.144 -0.14)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 26.7%
0-1 @ 8.81% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 6.26% (-0.217 -0.22)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.162 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.07% (-0.144 -0.14)
2-3 @ 1.48% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.45% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 26.22%

How you voted: Bolton vs Derby

Bolton Wanderers
38.0%
Draw
24.0%
Derby County
38.0%
50
Head to Head
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
Apr 9, 2016 3pm
Derby
4-1
Bolton
Russell (13', 77'), Ince (38'), Butterfield (69')
Thorne (81')
Clough (73' pen.)
Vela (21'), Moxey (63')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham24175242172556
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe26166452282454
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield25146539211848
5Barnsley2612684036442
6Stockport CountyStockport26118740281241
7Reading2512584036441
8Leyton Orient25115932221038
9Bolton WanderersBolton26115103941-238
10Charlton AthleticCharlton2510783126537
11Mansfield TownMansfield2411493228437
12Lincoln CityLincoln269892930-135
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham259792826234
14Exeter CityExeter2695122933-432
15Blackpool2571083437-331
16Stevenage248791922-331
17Wigan AthleticWigan2586112426-230
18Bristol Rovers2584132539-1428
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2676134247-527
20Northampton TownNorthampton2668122440-1626
21Crawley TownCrawley2456132544-1921
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
23Burton Albion2639142340-1718
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2546152445-2118
> League One Full Table


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