Thursday will be a must-win game for Independiente del Valle and Liverpool, who face each other on matchday six in the 2024 Copa Libertadores from Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Ecuador.
Both sides have four points in Group F after Independiente suffered a 2-1 defeat versus Palmeiras, while the Uruguayans were beaten 3-2 by San Lorenzo.
Match preview
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It is now or never for the two-time Copa Sudamericana champions, seeking successive trips into the last 16 of this tournament.
Making it back into the knockout stage this time will be a little more complicated but not impossible, as Los Negriazueles need a victory and a San Lorenzo defeat against Palmeiras.
The 2016 Libertadores runners-up have a goal differential of -2 while San Lorenzo are at zero, though both sides have scored six goals, meaning that a victory of any sort by the Ecuadorians combined with a San Lorenzo loss would give Independiente the tiebreaker advantage.
Javier Gandolfi's men could be in a much better position than they currently find themselves, having dropped five points in the group stage of this competition when leading at the interval.
Their 2-0 defeat versus Palmeiras on matchday three ended a seven-match home unbeaten run for them in the group portion of this tournament, though they have never suffered two consecutive home losses in a single Libertadores group phase.
They are undefeated in two previous home games in this competition versus sides from Uruguay, failing to concede both times, including a 2-0 victory over Liverpool in 2023.
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Two successive group defeats has made the path to the last 16 for Liverpool much tougher as they seek to make the knockout stage of this tournament for the first time.
Not only do they have to win and hope that San Lorenzo loses, but the Uruguayans also need at least a six-goal swing to fall their way.
Given the fact that Negriazules have never picked up a single point away from home in the group stage of this competition, it will feel like a mountainous task for this side to claim three points on Thursday.
Emiliano Alfaro's men could have made this task a little easier on themselves as well, scoring first but losing to Palmeiras in April (3-1) while conceding a goal three minutes from the end against San Lorenzo when they had a point in their pocket.
The reigning champions in the Uruguayan top flight have lost their last three matches away from home in all competitions, with each defeat being by a single goal.
Liverpool have never scored in a Libertadores clash played in Ecuador, losing on both occasions against Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica, respectively.
Team News
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Bryan Garcia remains out for Independiente del Valle following his suspension in a reported match-fixing scandal during his time in Brazil, while Youri Ochoa is dealing with a ligament tear.
Junior Sornoza tore a muscle last month and will not be ready in time for this match, Joan Lopez is out due to a contortion and Jose Kilnger is expected to be sidelined because of a ligament injury.
Lautaro Diaz had the only Independiente goal on matchday five versus Palestra, his first in the 2024 Copa Libertadores campaign.
For this critical encounter, Liverpool will be without Matias de los Santos, who received a straight red card on matchday five in the third minute of second-half stoppage time, while Facundo Perdomo is recovering from a cruciate ligament tear.
Two newcomers were in the starting 11 for them in their previous Libertadores encounter, with Gaston Guruceaga replacing Sebastian Lentinelly in goal and Diego Rodriguez coming in for Enzo Martinez.
Diego Garcia and Luciano Rodriguez each scored in their defeat to San Lorenzo, with the latter netting his team-leading second in the group phase.
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Villar; Landazuri, Carabajal, Schunke, Caicedo; Paez, Ortiz, Alcivar, Diaz; Hoyos, Bolanos
Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Lentinelly; Amaro, Rosso, Martinez, Cayetano; Lemos, D. Rodriguez; Gonzalez, Garcia, Ocampo; L. Rodriguez
We say: Independiente del Valle 1-0 Liverpool
A one-goal triumph may not be enough to vault them into second place, but we trust Independiente del Valle to get the job done because they are used to playing in these win-or-go-home scenarios.
Needing to score a plethora of goals could leave Liverpool exposed in transition, something the Ecuadorians will be able to use to their advantage on Thursday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
