Saturday's League Two clash between Exeter City and Stevenage could well have huge implications at both ends of the table come the end of the season.
The hosts have control of their own destiny in their quest for promotion to the third tier despite playing out a goalless draw in midweek, whilst the visitors continue to hover dangerously above the drop zone following the postponement of their fixture last weekend.
Match preview
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Exeter were forced to battle hard for the points against an in-form Port Vale side at Vale Park on Tuesday evening.
Matt Taylor's side were perhaps fortunate to come away with a point after holding their hosts to a 0-0 draw, but considering the calibre of their opposition, it was a positive result nevertheless.
The point moved the Grecians two points clear of Northampton Town, Bristol Rovers and Tranmere Rovers below them in the table, and with a game in hand still to play over the chasing pack, Exeter remain in control of second spot.
Having lost just once in their last 14 fixtures, and none of their last seven at St James Park, Saturday's hosts will be expected to maintain their advantage in the promotion race come the end of play against their struggling opponents.
After tasting just a single defeat in their last 15 meetings with Stevenage, the odds are certainly in Exeter's favour when they take to the field in this huge clash at both ends of the League Two table.
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Meanwhile, visitors Stevenage have had plenty of time to prepare for their trip to their high-flying opponents on the south coast, having had to postpone last weekend's trip to Mansfield Town due to a COVID-19 outbreak.
Numerous cases across the first team squad and backroom staff throughout the club left Stevenage with no choice, particularly when it added to the severity of their growing list of injury absences too.
The trip to Exeter will therefore be the first game in charge for new boss Steve Evans, who replaced the sacked Paul Tisdale earlier this month.
The nine-game winless run remains unbroken as a result of the postponement, which leaves the Boro living dangerously in 22nd place in the fourth tier, just three points above Oldham Athletic in the drop zone.
A similarly dismal run for the Latics is all that has kept Stevenage in control of their survival as things stand, and the new boss will be eager for the situation to remain that way by picking up some points of their own instead of relying on results elsewhere going their way in the coming weeks.
With fitness and availability issues a concern, as well as form and a dreadful recent record against their hosts, Stevenage will have no expectations on their shoulders when they make trip to St James Park, but this will do little to ease the pressure on the shoulders of Evans and his side.
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Team News
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After missing out on the midweek draw at Port Vale, it has been revealed that Exeter's Kyle Taylor is unlikely to return before the end of 2022 after having to undergo surgery on the serious knee injury sustained in the win against Oldham.
There is better news on Timothee Dieng however, with the midfielder returning to training this week and facing a fitness test ahead of Saturday's welcome of Stevenage.
Harry Kite remains on the sidelines through injury, whilst Nigel Atangana serves the second of his three-match ban following his recent red card.
An unchanged lineup is a possibility due to the lack of options at Taylor's disposal, and unless Dieng can return, defender Callum Rowe will be required to fill in in the centre of the pitch once more.
As for the visitors, the recent change in regulations surrounding COVID-19 means the majority, if not all, of the players that returned positive results should be available to return at Exeter.
However, it remains unclear whether many members of the squad have struggled with fitness this week as a result of the virus.
With doubts over the fitness of joint-top goalscorer Luke Norris following his injury against Northampton Town last time out, much of the goalscoring burden falls on forward Elliott List for the visitors.
Exeter City possible starting lineup:
Dawson; Diabate, Stubbs, Hartridge; Key, Collins, Rowe, Caprice; Jay; Brown, Zanzala
Stevenage possible starting lineup:
Pym; O'Neill, Vancooten, Prosser, James-Wildin; Taylor, Lines, Westbrooke; Carter, Reid, List
We say: Exeter City 2-0 Stevenage
Despite potentially receiving a new manager 'bounce' in Evans's first game in charge here, the visitors arrive at St James Park on the back of a poor winless streak and a challenging week following their COVID-19 outbreak.
Factoring all of this in with Exeter's strong run of form and an excellent record over their visitors, all the signs are pointing towards a comfortable home win here to see the hosts strengthen their hold on an automatic promotion spot.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 61.83%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Stevenage had a probability of 15.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Stevenage win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
