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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.52%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.32%) and 0-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
18.18% ( 0.4) | 20.3% ( 0.13) | 61.52% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 57.55% ( 0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.57% ( 0.08) | 38.43% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.28% ( 0.08) | 60.72% ( -0.08) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.43% ( 0.48) | 34.56% ( -0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.72% ( 0.51) | 71.28% ( -0.5) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.95% ( -0.12) | 12.04% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.46% ( -0.26) | 37.53% ( 0.26) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.81% Total : 18.18% | 1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.3% | 1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0) 0-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 6.99% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 6.58% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 3.71% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 3.7% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 3.48% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) Other @ 4.01% Total : 61.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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