Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 25

Mar 4, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina
2 - 1
AC Milan

Gonzalez (49' pen.), Jovic (87')
Cabral (29'), Ikone (59'), Gonzalez (70'), Davis Nicolas (79+79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Hernandez (90+5')
Thiaw (11'), Messias (35'), Kalulu (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Hellas Verona 0-3 Fiorentina
Monday, February 27 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 2-0 Atalanta
Sunday, February 26 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Fiorentina 1-2 AC Milan

Fiorentina (387) and Milan (351) are among the top four Serie A sides in terms of shots attempted this season, so there could be plenty of goalmouth action on Saturday evening - even if the visitors have tightened up at the back. Both teams should score at the Franchi, but Milan can gain revenge for a 4-3 reverse on their most recent visit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 31.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	AC Milan
44% ( -1.35)	24.89% ( 0.42)	31.11% ( 0.92)

Both teams to score 56.63% (

-0.95)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.53% (

-1.46)

46.47% (

1.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.25% (

-1.39)

68.75% (

1.38)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.84% (

-1.2)

21.16% (

1.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.97% (

-1.89)

54.02% (

1.89)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.83% (

-0.12)

28.17% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.14% (

-0.14)

63.86% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 44%

AC Milan 31.11%

Draw 24.88%

Fiorentina	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.25) 3-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.59% Total : 44%	1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.88%	0-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 4.78% ( 0.26) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.76% Total : 31.11%