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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derby County in this match.
Result | ||
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
30.62% ( 0.81) | 26.5% ( 0.31) | 42.89% ( -1.12) |
Both teams to score 51.2% ( -0.55) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.58% ( -0.9) | 53.42% ( 0.91) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.05% ( -0.77) | 74.95% ( 0.78) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.99% ( 0.12) | 32.01% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.52% ( 0.14) | 68.48% ( -0.13) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.31% ( -0.95) | 24.69% ( 0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.78% ( -1.35) | 59.23% ( 1.36) |
Score Analysis |
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 7.17% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 2.72% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.75% Total : 30.62% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.49% | 0-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 4.11% ( -0.19) 0-3 @ 3.61% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.54% Total : 42.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
2 | Wrexham | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
3 | Stockport CountyStockport | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 30 |
4 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 30 |
5 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 26 |
6 | Barnsley | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 26 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Reading | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 26 |
9 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 26 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 24 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 23 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 21 |
13 | Bristol Rovers | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 21 |
14 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
15 | Stevenage | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 19 |
16 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 18 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 17 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Blackpool | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 17 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 16 |
21 | Leyton Orient | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
24 | Burton Albion | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 8 |
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