MX23RW : Sunday, November 10 18:15:22| >> :600:594360:594360:
Derby logo
FA Cup | First Round Replays
Nov 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium (Derby)
Crewe Alexandra

Derby
1 - 3
Crewe

Barkhuizen (3')
Wilson (28'), Sibley (37')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Rowe (7', 21'), Demetriou (65')
Tracey (79'), Thomas (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Derby County and Crewe Alexandra, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 3-0 Barnsley
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Crewe 1-0 Notts County
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Derby County 2-0 Crewe Alexandra

From staring down the barrel of defeat to a straightforward path into the second round of the FA Cup, Derby County ought to use home advantage and their recent goalscoring exploits to their advantage on Tuesday. Crewe's League Two record offers the Railwaymen some hope of a successful evening, but Bell's side will surely be made to pay for their late collapse in the opening fixture as Derby set up a second-round battle with Bristol Rovers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 14.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCrewe Alexandra
66.5% (0.0040000000000049 0) 19.22% (0.0079999999999991 0.01) 14.28% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.29% (-0.061 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)40.99% (0.058 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.61% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)63.38% (0.058 0.06)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.55% (-0.017999999999986 -0.02)11.45% (0.013 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.73% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)36.27% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.05% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)40.95% (0.057000000000002 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.49% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)77.51% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 66.49%
    Crewe Alexandra 14.28%
    Draw 19.22%
Derby CountyDrawCrewe Alexandra
2-0 @ 11.01% (0.02 0.02)
1-0 @ 10.16% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.83% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 7.95% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 4.31% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-1 @ 3.85% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 3.17% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.87% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.72% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-1 @ 1.67% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.86%
Total : 66.49%
1-1 @ 9.07% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.69% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.39% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 19.22%
0-1 @ 4.19% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-2 @ 4.05% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 1.87% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.31% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 1.21% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 14.28%

How you voted: Derby vs Crewe

Derby County
83.3%
Draw
8.3%
Crewe Alexandra
8.3%
48
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2023 2.45pm
First Round
Crewe
2-2
Derby
Mendez-Laing (89'), Hourihane (90+3')
Jan 14, 2006 3pm
Derby
5-1
Crewe
Johnson (21'), Smith (53', 63'), Idiakez (71'), Peschisolido (11')
Vaughan (79')
Turnbull (71')
Sep 11, 2005 3pm
Crewe
1-1
Derby
Rivers (30')
Foster (36')
Bisgaard (49')
Davies (17'), Johnson (67')
Davies (62')
Apr 5, 2005 3pm
Crewe
1-2
Derby
Vaughan (90')
Lunt (81')
Smith (74'), Rasiak (16')
Bolder (65')
Aug 28, 2004 3pm
Derby
2-4
Crewe
Idiakez (46'), Tudgay (16')
Idiakez (60')
Jones (5', 83'), Vaughan (12'), Ashton (74')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Giants
17-20
Panthers
6pm
Patriots
@
Bears
6pm
49ers
@
Buccaneers
6pm
Broncos
@
Chiefs
6pm
Bills
@
Colts
6pm
Vikings
@
Jags
6pm
Falcons
@
Saints
6pm
Steelers
@
Washington
9.05pm
Titans
@
Chargers
9.25pm
Jets
@
Cardinals
9.25pm
Eagles
@
Cowboys
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
4Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
5Chelsea105322012818
6Arsenal105321711618
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!