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Stevenage
League One | Gameweek 16
Oct 28, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Lamex Stadium
Derby logo

Stevenage
3 - 1
Derby

Roberts (32'), MacDonald (45+2'), Hemmings (84')
Reid (59'), Piergianni (71')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Mendez-Laing (38')
Cashin (11'), Forsyth (30')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Stevenage and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Stevenage
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 2-0 Exeter
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Stevenage 1-1 Derby County

Having lost just one home league game this season, Stevenage are a tough team to beat at the Lamex Stadium, and we think that they will produce a battling display to hold Derby to a draw in Saturday's encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
StevenageDrawDerby County
31.88% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05) 27.38% (-0.004999999999999 -0) 40.74% (0.052 0.05)
Both teams to score 49%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.55% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)56.44% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.55% (0.0040000000000013 0)77.45% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.31% (-0.030999999999992 -0.03)32.68% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.76% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)69.23% (0.034000000000006 0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.79% (0.028999999999996 0.03)27.2% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.38% (0.039000000000001 0.04)62.61% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Stevenage 31.88%
    Derby County 40.73%
    Draw 27.38%
StevenageDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.94% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.24% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.56% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.7% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 2.07% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.76% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 31.88%
1-1 @ 12.94%
0-0 @ 8.89% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-2 @ 4.71% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 27.38%
0-1 @ 11.57% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.43% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-2 @ 7.53% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.66% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.27% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.04% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.19% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 1.06% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 40.73%

How you voted: Stevenage vs Derby

Stevenage
Draw
Derby County
Stevenage
50.0%
Draw
0.0%
Derby County
50.0%
8
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham35257358233582
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe351911561332868
3Wrexham36208850302068
4Charlton AthleticCharlton36189947311663
5Stockport CountyStockport361711852341862
6Bolton WanderersBolton36186125954560
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield361771247331458
8Reading361610105145658
9Leyton Orient361651551371453
10Barnsley36157145051-152
11Blackpool36121595448651
12Stevenage36139143437-348
13Lincoln CityLincoln361210144845346
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham35128153941-244
15Wigan AthleticWigan351110143234-243
16Exeter CityExeter35127163950-1143
17Bristol Rovers36126183955-1642
18Mansfield TownMansfield36118174150-941
19Northampton TownNorthampton361011153653-1741
20Peterborough UnitedPeterborough35109165260-839
21Burton Albion36712173653-1733
22Crawley TownCrawley3679203866-2830
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge3678213560-2529
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury3677223460-2628


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