Coverage of the FA Cup First Round clash between Crewe Alexandra and Derby County.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Harrogate 0-1 Crewe
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League Two
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Northampton
Tuesday, October 31 at 7.45pm in League One
Tuesday, October 31 at 7.45pm in League One
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 56.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.24%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Derby County |
19.96% ( 0) | 23.06% ( 0) | 56.98% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 51.45% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
