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Port Vale
League One | Gameweek 26
Jan 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Vale Park
Derby logo

Port Vale
1 - 2
Derby

Ojo (56')
Politic (2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Port Vale and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Bolton
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in League One

We said: Port Vale 1-2 Derby County

With home advantage in their favour, Vale will fancy their chances of earning at least a share of the spoils. However, we cannot back against Derby right now, and the Rams should have enough all-round quality to edge a competitive fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Port ValeDrawDerby County
29.29% (-1.446 -1.45) 27.2% (-0.686 -0.69) 43.5% (2.126 2.13)
Both teams to score 48.44% (1.309 1.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.35% (1.973 1.97)56.64% (-1.979 -1.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.39% (1.561 1.56)77.61% (-1.566 -1.57)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.31% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)34.69% (0.034999999999997 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.58% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)71.41% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.17% (2.046 2.05)25.83% (-2.052 -2.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.2% (2.693 2.69)60.79% (-2.7 -2.7)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 29.29%
    Derby County 43.5%
    Draw 27.2%
Port ValeDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.49% (-0.744 -0.74)
2-1 @ 6.8% (-0.132 -0.13)
2-0 @ 5.02% (-0.404 -0.4)
3-1 @ 2.4% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-0 @ 1.77% (-0.144 -0.14)
3-2 @ 1.62% (0.06 0.06)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 29.29%
1-1 @ 12.84% (-0.23 -0.23)
0-0 @ 8.96% (-0.702 -0.7)
2-2 @ 4.6% (0.175 0.18)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.2%
0-1 @ 12.12% (-0.21 -0.21)
1-2 @ 8.69% (0.339 0.34)
0-2 @ 8.21% (0.328 0.33)
1-3 @ 3.92% (0.366 0.37)
0-3 @ 3.7% (0.349 0.35)
2-3 @ 2.08% (0.192 0.19)
1-4 @ 1.33% (0.192 0.19)
0-4 @ 1.25% (0.182 0.18)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 43.5%

How you voted: Port Vale vs Derby

Port Vale
18.4%
Draw
8.2%
Derby County
73.5%
49
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2022 3pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe15112235181735
2Wrexham1694325111431
3Stockport CountyStockport1786329171230
4Birmingham CityBirmingham1493226151130
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield158252315826
6Barnsley167542420426
7Lincoln CityLincoln167542320326
8Reading158252422226
9Bolton WanderersBolton158252425-126
10Mansfield TownMansfield147342016424
11Exeter CityExeter157261413123
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough166373229321
13Bristol Rovers166371721-421
14Charlton AthleticCharlton155461617-119
15Stevenage165471116-519
16Northampton TownNorthampton164661821-318
17Wigan AthleticWigan154561312117
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham164571419-517
19Blackpool164572230-817
20Crawley TownCrawley174491527-1216
21Leyton Orient154381418-415
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge153391324-1112
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1632111629-1311
24Burton Albion151591528-138


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