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Port Vale
League One | Gameweek 26
Jan 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Vale Park
Derby logo

Port Vale
1 - 2
Derby

Ojo (56')
Politic (2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Port Vale and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Bolton
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in League One

We said: Port Vale 1-2 Derby County

With home advantage in their favour, Vale will fancy their chances of earning at least a share of the spoils. However, we cannot back against Derby right now, and the Rams should have enough all-round quality to edge a competitive fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Port ValeDrawDerby County
29.29% (-1.446 -1.45) 27.2% (-0.686 -0.69) 43.5% (2.126 2.13)
Both teams to score 48.44% (1.309 1.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.35% (1.973 1.97)56.64% (-1.979 -1.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.39% (1.561 1.56)77.61% (-1.566 -1.57)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.31% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)34.69% (0.034999999999997 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.58% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)71.41% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.17% (2.046 2.05)25.83% (-2.052 -2.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.2% (2.693 2.69)60.79% (-2.7 -2.7)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 29.29%
    Derby County 43.5%
    Draw 27.2%
Port ValeDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.49% (-0.744 -0.74)
2-1 @ 6.8% (-0.132 -0.13)
2-0 @ 5.02% (-0.404 -0.4)
3-1 @ 2.4% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-0 @ 1.77% (-0.144 -0.14)
3-2 @ 1.62% (0.06 0.06)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 29.29%
1-1 @ 12.84% (-0.23 -0.23)
0-0 @ 8.96% (-0.702 -0.7)
2-2 @ 4.6% (0.175 0.18)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.2%
0-1 @ 12.12% (-0.21 -0.21)
1-2 @ 8.69% (0.339 0.34)
0-2 @ 8.21% (0.328 0.33)
1-3 @ 3.92% (0.366 0.37)
0-3 @ 3.7% (0.349 0.35)
2-3 @ 2.08% (0.192 0.19)
1-4 @ 1.33% (0.192 0.19)
0-4 @ 1.25% (0.182 0.18)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 43.5%

How you voted: Port Vale vs Derby

Port Vale
18.4%
Draw
8.2%
Derby County
73.5%
49
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2022 3pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1484222101228
4Barnsley147432318525
5Lincoln CityLincoln147432117425
6Stockport CountyStockport156632517824
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Reading147252221123
10Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
11Exeter CityExeter137151410422
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Stevenage155371116-518
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
16Bristol Rovers145271621-517
17Northampton TownNorthampton144461821-316
18Blackpool144462128-716
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley153391427-1312
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge133191223-1110
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148


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