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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
Result | ||
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
29.29% ( -1.45) | 27.2% ( -0.69) | 43.5% ( 2.13) |
Both teams to score 48.44% ( 1.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.35% ( 1.97) | 56.64% ( -1.98) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.39% ( 1.56) | 77.61% ( -1.57) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.31% ( -0.04) | 34.69% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.58% ( -0.04) | 71.41% ( 0.04) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.17% ( 2.05) | 25.83% ( -2.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.2% ( 2.69) | 60.79% ( -2.7) |
Score Analysis |
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.74) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.4) 3-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.19% Total : 29.29% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 8.96% ( -0.7) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.2% | 0-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 8.69% ( 0.34) 0-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.37) 0-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.35) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.19) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.19) 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.2% Total : 43.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 30 |
3 | Wrexham | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
4 | Barnsley | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 25 |
6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 24 |
7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
9 | Reading | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 23 |
10 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 23 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 22 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 21 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
14 | Stevenage | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 17 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 16 |
18 | Blackpool | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 16 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 14 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 12 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
23 | Burton Albion | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 8 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
> League One Full Table |