Form, Standings, Stats
Saturday, December 10 at 2pm in League One
Saturday, December 10 at 2pm in League One
We said: Derby County 3-1 Forest Green Rovers
Although Forest Green have won their last three matches, they are currently winless in nine away league games, and we think that their away day struggles will continue, with Derby claiming all three points. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 18.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
60.72% ( 0.02) | 20.78% ( -0.17) | 18.49% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 56.47% ( 0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.86% ( 1.01) | 40.14% ( -1.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.49% ( 1.03) | 62.5% ( -1.04) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.2% ( 0.32) | 12.8% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.89% ( 0.66) | 39.1% ( -0.67) |
| Forest Green Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.76% ( 0.75) | 35.24% ( -0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28% ( 0.78) | 71.99% ( -0.78) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.21)1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.32)3-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.58% Total : 60.72% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.78% | 1-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.74% Total : 18.49% |
