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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 1-0 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Burton Albion | Draw | Derby County |
30.01% ( -0.6) | 25.2% ( 0.07) | 44.79% ( 0.54) |
Both teams to score 55.02% ( -0.54) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.68% ( -0.56) | 48.32% ( 0.57) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.54% ( -0.52) | 70.47% ( 0.52) |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.16% ( -0.7) | 29.84% ( 0.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.07% ( -0.85) | 65.93% ( 0.86) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.42% ( 0.01) | 21.58% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.33% ( 0.01) | 54.67% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Burton Albion | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.26% Total : 30.01% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 9.16% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 4.68% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 3.87% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.44% Total : 44.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wrexham | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
3 | Barnsley | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
4 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
5 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 11 |
9 | Blackpool | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
11 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 10 |
12 | Exeter CityExeter | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
13 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
14 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
15 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
16 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
17 | Reading | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
18 | Crawley TownCrawley | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
19 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
22 | Burton Albion | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |