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League One | Gameweek 24
Dec 30, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cambridge United

Derby
1 - 0
Cambridge

Dobbin (57')
Sibley (35'), Smith (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Brophy (76'), Janneh (81'), Williams (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Derby County and Cambridge United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 0-0 Derby
Tuesday, December 27 at 3pm in League One

Cambridge United

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Cambridge 2-1 Shrewsbury
Monday, December 26 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 1-1 Cambridge United

 Derby County's trouble recently has been turning draws into victories, and although they boast the quality to see off Cambridge United, the visitors will have renewed optimism after their Boxing Day victory, and we fancy them to return home with a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.51%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Cambridge United had a probability of 14.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Cambridge United win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCambridge United
65.51% (-0.58099999999999 -0.58) 19.53% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 14.96% (0.523 0.52)
Both teams to score 52.98% (1.155 1.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.04% (0.848 0.85)40.96% (-0.845 -0.84)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.64% (0.86 0.86)63.35% (-0.858 -0.86)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.29% (0.090000000000003 0.09)11.71% (-0.087 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.17% (0.195 0.2)36.83% (-0.191 -0.19)
Cambridge United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60% (1.25 1.25)40% (-1.245 -1.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.35% (1.126 1.13)76.65% (-1.123 -1.12)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 65.5%
    Cambridge United 14.96%
    Draw 19.53%
Derby CountyDrawCambridge United
2-0 @ 10.77% (-0.34 -0.34)
1-0 @ 10.04% (-0.36 -0.36)
2-1 @ 9.87% (0.028 0.03)
3-0 @ 7.7% (-0.216 -0.22)
3-1 @ 7.06% (0.045000000000001 0.05)
4-0 @ 4.13% (-0.1 -0.1)
4-1 @ 3.78% (0.038 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.23% (0.129 0.13)
5-0 @ 1.77% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.73% (0.075 0.08)
5-1 @ 1.62% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 65.5%
1-1 @ 9.21% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.68% (-0.182 -0.18)
2-2 @ 4.52% (0.164 0.16)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 19.53%
0-1 @ 4.29% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.22% (0.138 0.14)
0-2 @ 1.97% (0.058 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.38% (0.095 0.1)
1-3 @ 1.29% (0.084 0.08)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 14.96%

How you voted: Derby vs Cambridge

Derby County
86.4%
Draw
9.1%
Cambridge United
4.5%
44
Head to Head
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
Cambridge
0-2
Derby
Collins (45', 83')
Osula (90+5')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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