League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
Bolton0 - 0Derby
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Exeter
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Forest Green
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One
We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Derby County
The two teams are very evenly matched, as indicated by their league positions, so it is difficult to pick a winner on Boxing Day. As such, we expect that the match will finish as a draw, with both sides maintaining their place in the League One playoffs. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Derby County |
47.08% ( 0.9) | 26.7% ( 0.06) | 26.22% ( -0.96) |
| Both teams to score 47.9% ( -0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
