League One

League One | Gameweek 25

Jan 2, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
4 - 0
Accrington

Barkhuizen (7', 46'), Hourihane (16'), McGoldrick (45+2' pen.)
Smith (11'), Sibley (29'), Forsyth (62')
Osula (79')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Whalley (13'), Rodgers (22'), Fernandes (35')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Accrington Stanley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 1-0 Cambridge
Friday, December 30 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Accrington Stanley

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Morecambe 2-0 Accrington
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 2-0 Accrington Stanley

Derby have proven to be a tough team to beat, and after winning their last two home matches, we think that they will continue their impressive home form by recording a victory over an Accrington side who have won only one of their last 11 league games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 17.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Accrington Stanley
61.03% ( 0.13)	21.6% ( -0.05)	17.37% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 51.47% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.32% (

0.05)

45.68% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32% (

0.05)

68% (

-0.05)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.52% (

0.06)

14.48% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.54% (

0.11)

42.46% (

-0.11)

Accrington Stanley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.19% (

-0.07)

39.81% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.52% (

-0.06)

76.48% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Derby County 61.02%

Accrington Stanley 17.37%

Draw 21.6%

Derby County	Draw	Accrington Stanley
1-0 @ 11.13% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.76% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.91% 3-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 61.02%	1-1 @ 10.26% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.6%	0-1 @ 5.31% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.04% Total : 17.37%