League One

League One | Gameweek 15

Oct 15, 2022 at 3pm UK

Wham Stadium

Accrington
0 - 3
Derby

Tharme (51')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Osula (15', 39'), Barkhuizen (90+8')
Cashin (28'), Davies (37')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Accrington Stanley and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Accrington Stanley

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Plymouth 3-0 Accrington
Saturday, October 8 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 1-2 Port Vale
Saturday, October 8 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Accrington Stanley 1-2 Derby County

It is only a matter of time until Derby's big-name signings start clicking together, and they should be just too much for Accrington, but it certainly will not be easy. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 28.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Accrington Stanley	Draw	Derby County
28.92%	25.75%	45.32% ( -0)

Both teams to score 52.6% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.81% (

-0)

51.19% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.97%

73.03% (

-0)

Accrington Stanley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.9% (

32.09% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.43% (

68.57% (

-0)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.46% (

-0)

22.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.87% (

-0)

56.12%

Score Analysis

Accrington Stanley 28.92%

Derby County 45.31%

Draw 25.75%

Accrington Stanley	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 8.22% 2-1 @ 6.96% 2-0 @ 4.67% 3-1 @ 2.64% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.96% 3-0 @ 1.77% Other @ 2.7% Total : 28.92%	1-1 @ 12.24% 0-0 @ 7.24% 2-2 @ 5.19% 3-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.75%	0-1 @ 10.77% 1-2 @ 9.13% 0-2 @ 8.03% 1-3 @ 4.53% 0-3 @ 3.99% 2-3 @ 2.58% 1-4 @ 1.69% 0-4 @ 1.49% 2-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.16% Total : 45.31%