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Championship header 2

League One
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League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 21, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
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Derby
2 - 1
Bolton

Mendez-Laing (16'), Hourihane (72')
Hourihane (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sadlier (90+3')
Johnston (16')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bolton Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 2-3 Derby
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League One

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 3-0 Portsmouth
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 1-1 Bolton Wanderers

 As the league table suggests, there is very little to separate Derby and Bolton at the moment, and both sides head into this clash on impressive unbeaten streaks.    Derby boast the second-best defensive record in the division, while Bolton have the third-best defensive record, meaning Saturday's game should be a low-scoring affair, with both teams looking to preserve their respective unbeaten runs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 24.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
51.03% (0.007000000000005 0.01) 24.73% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 24.24% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 51.9% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.76% (0.018000000000001 0.02)50.24% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (0.015000000000001 0.02)72.2% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.31% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)19.69% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.32% (0.015999999999998 0.02)51.68% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.62% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)35.38% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.86% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)72.14% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.03%
    Bolton Wanderers 24.24%
    Draw 24.73%
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
1-0 @ 11.32%
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.2% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.98% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.69% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 2.1% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 2.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.09% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 51.03%
1-1 @ 11.76%
0-0 @ 6.97% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.73%
0-1 @ 7.24% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 6.11%
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 2.12%
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.3%
Other @ 2%
Total : 24.24%

How you voted: Derby vs Bolton

Derby County
60.9%
Draw
26.1%
Bolton Wanderers
13.0%
23
Head to Head
Dec 27, 2022 3pm
Bolton
0-0
Derby

Forsyth (26')
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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