MX23RW : Sunday, November 10 18:21:50| >> :60:311:311:
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 8, 2023 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti
Fluminense

River Plate
2 - 0
Fluminense

Beltran (49'), Barco (90+7' pen.)
de la Cruz (45+2'), Paradela (81'), Barco (90+8'), Borja (90+8')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Martinelli (42'), Cano (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between River Plate and Fluminense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: River Plate 0-0 Defensa
Saturday, June 3 at 8.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: River Plate 2-1 Fluminense

The manner of the defeat in the reverse fixture naturally left River Plate stunned and in a position where qualification is no longer deemed to be a foregone conclusion. However, they are a different side at home, and we feel that their battling qualities will lead to a potentially-decisive victory over the group leaders. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 54.15%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 22.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-2 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
River PlateDrawFluminense
54.15% (0.38200000000001 0.38) 22.92% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02) 22.93% (-0.355 -0.36)
Both teams to score 56.21% (-0.361 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.2% (-0.26900000000001 -0.27)43.8% (0.273 0.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.81% (-0.267 -0.27)66.19% (0.26899999999999 0.27)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.89% (0.040000000000006 0.04)16.11% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.48% (0.067999999999998 0.07)45.52% (-0.065000000000005 -0.07)
Fluminense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67% (-0.46199999999999 -0.46)33% (0.466 0.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.41% (-0.515 -0.51)69.59% (0.51899999999999 0.52)
Score Analysis
    River Plate 54.16%
    Fluminense 22.93%
    Draw 22.92%
River PlateDrawFluminense
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-0 @ 9.71% (0.127 0.13)
2-0 @ 8.86% (0.127 0.13)
3-1 @ 5.98% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.39% (0.084000000000001 0.08)
3-2 @ 3.31% (-0.033 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.73% (0.011 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.46% (0.041 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.51% (-0.013 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.38%
Total : 54.16%
1-1 @ 10.76% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.45% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 5.32% (0.063 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.23% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 22.92%
1-2 @ 5.96% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-1 @ 5.89% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-2 @ 3.27% (-0.045 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.2% (-0.055 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.01% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-3 @ 1.21% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 22.93%

How you voted: River Plate vs Fluminense

River Plate
68.4%
Draw
15.8%
Fluminense
15.8%
19
Head to Head
May 3, 2023 1am
May 25, 2021 11.15pm
Group Stage
River Plate
1-3
Fluminense
Girotti (85')
De La Cruz (32'), Martinez (49'), Suarez (65')
Maidana (67')
Paulista (22'), Nene (29'), Yago (90+2')
Martinelli (27'), Xavier (61'), Paulista (68')
Apr 22, 2021 11pm
Group Stage
Fluminense
1-1
River Plate
Montiel (13' pen.), Fred (66')
Yago (65'), Fred (81'), Martinelli (88')
rhs 2.0
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