Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 20, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

River Plate
4 - 2
Cristal

de la Cruz (18'), Beltran (36'), Barco (52'), Solari (61')
Fernandez (42')
Diaz (38')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Ignacio (6'), Corozo (41')
Castillo (42'), Lutiger (56'), Madrid (82')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between River Plate and Sporting Cristal.

Form, Standings, Stats

River Plate

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Newell's OB 0-1 River Plate
Sunday, April 16 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sporting Cristal

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Cristal 1-3 Fluminense
Thursday, April 6 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 78.69%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 7.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.27%), while for a Sporting Cristal win it was 1-2 (2.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
River Plate	Draw	Sporting Cristal
78.69% ( 0.02)	13.45% ( -0.01)	7.86% ( -0)

Both teams to score 50.28% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.28% (

0.04)

31.72% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.76% (

0.05)

53.23% (

-0.05)

River Plate Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.6% (

0.01)

6.4% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

76.01% (

0.03)

23.98% (

-0.03)

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.72% (

0.02)

46.27% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.06% (

0.01)

81.93% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

River Plate 78.68%

Sporting Cristal 7.86%

Draw 13.45%

River Plate	Draw	Sporting Cristal
2-0 @ 11.18% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 10.25% 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.9% ( 0) 4-0 @ 7.05% ( 0) 4-1 @ 5.43% ( 0) 5-0 @ 3.88% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.99% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.09% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.78% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.37% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0) Other @ 3.82% Total : 78.68%	1-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.32% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.9% Total : 13.45%	1-2 @ 2.42% ( -0) 0-1 @ 2.28% ( -0) Other @ 3.16% Total : 7.86%