Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 1st Leg

Feb 21, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio Arsenio Erico

Nacional
2 - 0
Cristal

(Sporting Cristal win 5-3 on aggregate)

Martinez (46'), Aguilar (90+7')
Fernando Alfaro (29'), Martinez (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lutiger (90+2'), Yotun (90+4')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Club Nacional and Sporting Cristal.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Nacional

Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Huancayo
Wednesday, February 15 at 12am in Copa Libertadores

Sporting Cristal

Last Game: Flamengo 2-1 Cristal
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 38.71%. A win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Sporting Cristal win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Nacional would win this match.

Result
Club Nacional	Draw	Sporting Cristal
38.71% ( -1.71)	27.73% ( -0.27)	33.56% ( 1.98)

Both teams to score 48.39% (

1.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.58% (

1.35)

57.42% (

-1.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.77% (

1.07)

78.23% (

-1.06)

Club Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.19% (

-0.33)

28.81% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.33% (

-0.41)

64.67% (

0.41)

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.97% (

2.08)

32.03% (

-2.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.5% (

2.3)

68.5% (

-2.3)

Score Analysis

Club Nacional 38.71%

Sporting Cristal 33.55%

Draw 27.73%

Club Nacional	Draw	Sporting Cristal
1-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.72) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.52) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.24) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.71% Total : 38.71%	1-1 @ 13.07% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.23% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( 0.2) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.73%	0-1 @ 10.5% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.44% ( 0.38) 0-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.36) 1-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.29) 0-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.25) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.17) Other @ 2.78% Total : 33.55%