Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Braga had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-0 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Braga | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
31.61% ( 0.36) | 25.12% ( 0.16) | 43.28% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 56.08% ( -0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.71% ( -0.57) | 47.29% ( 0.57) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.49% ( -0.54) | 69.51% ( 0.53) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.75% ( -0.05) | 28.25% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.04% ( -0.06) | 63.96% ( 0.06) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.16% ( -0.48) | 21.84% ( 0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.93% ( -0.74) | 55.06% ( 0.74) |
Score Analysis |
Braga | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 7.8% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 2.74% Total : 31.61% | 1-1 @ 11.86% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.11% | 0-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 3.62% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.41% Total : 43.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5 | 34 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 25 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 21 |
5 | Braga | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 20 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Casa Pia | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
13 | AVS | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 10 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
16 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 5 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |