Australian A-League | Gameweek 23

Apr 10, 2023 at 7am UK

AAMI Park

Melbourne City
4 - 1
Wellington

MacLaren (34', 52'), Tilio (57', 83')
Talbot (70')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ugarkovic (49')
Ball (90')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 2-1 Victory
Wednesday, April 5 at 10am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 1-2 Victory
Saturday, April 1 at 3am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 68.99%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 13.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.36%) and 3-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
68.99% ( 0.84)	17.24% ( -0.19)	13.77% ( -0.65)

Both teams to score 58.33% (

-1.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.44% (

-0.62)

32.56% (

0.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.78% (

-0.72)

54.22% (

0.72)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.44% (

0.03)

8.56% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.41% (

0.06)

29.59% (

-0.06)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.79% (

-1.28)

36.21% (

1.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27% (

-1.33)

73% (

1.33)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 68.99%

Wellington Phoenix 13.77%

Draw 17.24%

Melbourne City	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.33) 3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.28) 1-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.26) 4-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.09) 5-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.04) 6-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.35% Total : 68.99%	1-1 @ 7.74% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.23% Total : 17.24%	1-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.13% Total : 13.77%