An Atalanta side under Gasperini's wing almost always guarantee goals, whereas Young Boys have been largely toothless in Europe this season and will surely fall to La Dea's superiority on Tuesday.
The hosts do not help themselves in the final third either - their shot conversion rate of 2.1% is the second-worst in the tournament - so Atalanta should also maintain their perfect defensive record at Stadion Wankdorf.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 59.59%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Young Boys had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.62%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Young Boys win it was 2-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
-0.09) 
0.18) 
