We say: Everton 1-1 Chelsea
Everton are unbeaten in five home league games since capitulating in the final three minutes against Bournemouth, and proved to Arsenal last weekend how difficult they are to break down when they have a fully fit defence.
Chelsea have lost on five of their last six visits here, and even though they have made remarkable progress this season, there is something about Goodison that seems to get the better of them.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Chelsea win with a probability of 52.68%. A win for Everton has a probability of 23.98% and a draw has a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.76%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Everton win is 1-0 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.98%).