Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.99%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 22.81% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.95%) and 3-1 (6.91%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.