The League Phase of the newly-formed 2024-25 Champions League reached a gripping conclusion on matchday eight, as fixtures involving all 36 teams kicked off simultaneously, with the vast majority of teams still having something to play for.
The competition's new format produced an evening of high drama, as teams were either battling to progress straight through to the last 16 as one of the top-eight sides, seeking to improve their rank to secure a seeded spot in the playoff round, or fighting to avoid elimination.
Few would have envisaged the 36-team table to have ended as it did. Indeed, only three of the of the original nine clubs from Pot 1 finished in the top eight - Liverpool, Barcelona and Inter Milan - while Pot 3 side Lille and Pot 4 team Aston Villa managed to secure automatic qualification to the last 16.
Holders Real Madrid were among several European giants who had to settle for a playoff position - finishing 11th - and were subsequently hand a challenging draw against one of the surprise underachievers in Manchester City, who ended the League Phase in 22nd place after scrambling their way into the playoffs on the final matchday.
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at how many points were enough to see teams progress through the League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League, comparing it to how many points teams were projected to collect.
© Reuters
How many points were required to reach Champions League knockouts?
The League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League began in September 2024 and ran through to the end of January 2025, meaning there was a slight extension on the December end date of the previous group-stage format.
All 36 clubs played eight times in the League Phase and the top eight teams automatically advanced to the last 16, while teams who finished between ninth and 24th were forced to compete in a two-legged playoff round to join them. Any side that finishes 25th or lower was eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
According to studies that took place prior to the 2024-25 competition from Football Meets Data, who carried out over 10,000 simulations, between 15 and 16 points was predicted be enough to see teams secure a top-eight finish and progress to the knockout rounds of the Champions League in its new format.
This would therefore mean that clubs would be required to win at least five of their eight games in the League Phase, or another combination of victories and draws to reach the 15 to 16-point marker.
In the end, each of the top-eight teams in the 2024-25 campaign collected at least 16 points, with as many as five teams (Atalanta BC, Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and AC Milan) all picking up 15 points and narrowly missing out on automatic last-16 qualification.
Liverpool cruised through the League Phase and finished top of the pile with an impressive 21 points - winning their first seven games before losing their final fixture to PSV Eindhoven - even though Opta predicted pre-tournament that Arne Slot's men would collect only 13 points in total, and gave them a 31.7% chance of finishing in the top eight to progress automatically to the last 16.
Meanwhile, the report from Football Meets Data predicted pre-tournament that teams would need to collect nine points from eight games if they were to finish in the top 24 and secure at least a place in the playoff round.
However, each of the top-24 teams accumulated at least 10 points with a game to spare - Man City (22nd), Sporting Lisbon (23rd), Club Brugge (24th) and Dinamo Zagreb (25th) all ended the League Phase with 11 points, while 26th-placed Stuttgart finished with 10 points.
Oliver Thomas
