Australian A-League | Gameweek 8

Apr 5, 2023 at 10am UK

AAMI Park

Melbourne City
2 - 1
Victory

O'Neill (11', 57')
O'Neill (25'), MacLaren (43')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Velupillay (89')
Miranda (58'), Kamau (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 1-1 Newcastle Jets
Sunday, April 2 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 1-2 Victory
Saturday, April 1 at 3am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

We said: Melbourne City 2-1 Melbourne Victory

Lately, Victory look more organised and compact defensively, but City have the personnel to get through that defensive line and a striker who has rarely been contained over the past few seasons, so we expect the home team will be too much for the visitors to handle this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 63.34%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 16.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 0-1 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Melbourne City.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Melbourne Victory
63.34% ( 2.01)	20.24% ( -0.51)	16.42% ( -1.49)

Both teams to score 53.99% (

-1.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.66% (

-0.36)

41.34% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.27% (

-0.37)

63.73% (

0.37)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.58% (

0.47)

12.42% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.67% (

0.96)

38.33% (

-0.95)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.65% (

-1.97)

38.35% (

1.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.89% (

-1.94)

75.11% (

1.95)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 63.34%

Melbourne Victory 16.42%

Draw 20.25%

Melbourne City	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.52) 1-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.48) 3-1 @ 6.91% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.31) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.16) 5-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.54% Total : 63.34%	1-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.27) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.25%	0-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.35) 0-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.12% Total : 16.42%