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Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 18
Feb 26, 2023 at 4am UK
AAMI Park
Adelaide United

Victory
1 - 1
Adelaide United

Fornaroli (81' pen.)
Cadete (19'), Chapman (26'), Fornaroli (53'), Miranda (56')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Irankunda (87')
Goodwin (17'), Halloran (46'), Popovic (79'), Ibusuki (80'), Sanchez (90+4'), Irankunda (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Last Game: Victory 3-2 Melbourne City
Saturday, February 18 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Adelaide United

All competitions
Last Game: Adelaide United 4-4 Western Sydney
Sunday, February 19 at 4am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne Victory 2-2 Adelaide United

 Melbourne Victory have got a lot of momentum behind them after a major victory last weekend, and that should lead to them creating another strong performance. Adelaide United have struggled away from home, and while they are in a better league position it might end up being a draw this time around. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.79%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 21.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 1-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawAdelaide United
56.79% (0.214 0.21) 21.48% (-0.167 -0.17) 21.72% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Both teams to score 59.49% (0.522 0.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.31% (0.72 0.72)38.69% (-0.725 -0.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39% (0.75700000000001 0.76)60.99% (-0.762 -0.76)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.5% (0.30200000000001 0.3)13.49% (-0.307 -0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.47% (0.60599999999999 0.61)40.52% (-0.611 -0.61)
Adelaide United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.77% (0.36200000000001 0.36)31.23% (-0.366 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.42% (0.418 0.42)67.57% (-0.423 -0.42)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 56.8%
    Adelaide United 21.72%
    Draw 21.48%
Melbourne VictoryDrawAdelaide United
2-1 @ 9.84% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.45% (-0.098000000000001 -0.1)
1-0 @ 8.44% (-0.195 -0.2)
3-1 @ 6.57% (0.064 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.64% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.82% (0.075 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.29% (0.069 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.83% (0.031 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.91% (0.059 0.06)
5-1 @ 1.32% (0.041 0.04)
5-0 @ 1.13% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 56.8%
1-1 @ 9.82% (-0.126 -0.13)
2-2 @ 5.73% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.21% (-0.146 -0.15)
3-3 @ 1.48% (0.044 0.04)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 21.48%
1-2 @ 5.72% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-1 @ 4.9% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-2 @ 2.85% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.22% (0.041 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.22% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.11% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 21.72%

How you voted: Victory vs Adelaide United

Melbourne Victory
47.1%
Draw
23.5%
Adelaide United
29.4%
17
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2023 8.45am
Adelaide United
1-1
Victory
Goodwin (7')
Lopez (20'), Juande (45+3'), Popovic (52'), D'Arrigo (60'), Alagich (90+6')
D'Agostino (49')
Broxham (18'), D'Agostino (86')
Nov 11, 2022 8.45am
Adelaide United
3-0
Victory
Ibusuki (37'), Goodwin (86' pen.), Warland (90+1')
Alagich (49')
Apr 2, 2022 9.45am
Adelaide United
0-1
Victory

Ibusuki (45+3'), Juande (61'), Lopez (66')
Rojas (7')
Spiranovic (27'), Margiotta (49'), Kelava (90+6')
Jan 8, 2022 8.45am
Victory
1-1
Adelaide United
D'Agostino (84')
Brooks (90+4')
Goodwin (90+1')
Timotheou (49'), Sanchez (79'), Juande (90')
Sanchez (90+2')
Dec 11, 2021 8.45am
Adelaide United
1-2
Victory
Tratt (70')
Yengi (26'), Sanchez (31'), Halloran (39'), Tratt (53')
Margiotta (59'), Velupillay (78')
Miranda (27'), Davidson (29'), Kruse (90+5')
Davidson (88')
rhs 2.0
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