Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.39%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.