Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundee win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundee win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 1-2 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundee would win this match.
Result | ||
Dundee | Draw | Motherwell |
42.19% ( 0.03) | 24.51% ( 0.23) | 33.3% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 58.83% ( -0.93) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.01% ( -1.18) | 43.98% ( 1.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.63% ( -1.16) | 66.36% ( 1.16) |
Dundee Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.05% ( -0.48) | 20.94% ( 0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.31% ( -0.76) | 53.68% ( 0.76) |
Motherwell Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.41% ( -0.72) | 25.58% ( 0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.54% ( -0.99) | 60.46% ( 0.99) |
Score Analysis |
Dundee | Draw | Motherwell |
2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.31) 2-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.71% Total : 42.19% | 1-1 @ 11.41% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.27) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.5% | 1-2 @ 7.78% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 4.98% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.52% Total : 33.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Celtic | 19 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 52 | 7 | 45 | 50 |
2 | RangersRangers | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 39 |
3 | Dundee UnitedDundee Utd | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 34 |
4 | Aberdeen | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 |
5 | St Mirren | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 27 |
6 | Motherwell | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 27 |
7 | Hibernian | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
8 | Kilmarnock | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 24 |
9 | Dundee | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 22 |
10 | Ross County | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 22 |
11 | Hearts | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 20 |
12 | St Johnstone | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 15 |
> Scottish Premiership Full Table |