We said: Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
Fiorentina have proved tough to beat at home, so Napoli may have to make do with a point - still enough to take sole possession of the Serie A summit.
While the Viola's form has faltered, they remain a well-drilled unit that can pose some problems for the Partenopei's solid defence.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
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