Qarabag FK carry a 2-0 lead into the home leg of their Europa League playoff showdown with NK Olimpija Ljubljana at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium on Thursday.
The Azerbaijani champions chalked up a healthy advantage in Slovenia last week, meaning that Ljubljana must overturn a sizeable deficit in Baku in order to advance.
Match preview
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To say that Qarabag enjoyed a strong start to the first leg would be an understatement, as the visitors raced into a 2-0 lead before half time, courtesy of goals from Colombian defender Kevin Medina and Cape Verde midfielder Leandro Andrade.
Despite the best efforts of Ljubljana, no further goals were scored at Stozice Stadium, while the hosts ended up finishing the game with 10 men following the sending off of David Sualehe, who will miss the second leg through suspension.
Gurban Gurbanov's side appeared to be heading for a sixth straight victory in all competitions on Sunday, as they found themselves 1-0 up against Kapaz with only a handful of minutes remaining, but an 86th-minute equaliser from Cavad Karimov cancelled out Juninho's ninth-minute opener.
Still, the Horsemen have lost just one of their four Azerbaijan Premier League matches this season, with two defeats coming in their 11 encounters across all competitions in 2023-24, so they will be confident of sealing the deal on Thursday.
As for Ljubljana, they can count themselves somewhat unfortunate to have lost the first leg 2-0, as Joao Henriques's men racked up 10 attempts while edging the possession, but they failed to find a way through.
To make matters worse, the Dragons suffered a 4-2 thrashing at the hands of Celje last time out, despite registering 58% possession and 16 shots on home soil, meaning that Ljubljana have now lost four of their previous six games in all competitions.
It would not be unfair to say that Ljubljana have made an indifferent start to the campaign, recording four wins, one draw and five losses in their last 10 outings, with defeats coming in Champions League qualification, Europa League qualification and domestic competition.
That said, the Slovenian champions can take confidence from the fact that they have scored seven goals in their previous three matches, so they will be hopeful of turning things around in Baku.
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Team News
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With the right-back duo of Marko Vesovic and Abbas Huseynov sidelined through injury, Toral Bayramov will continue in Qarabag's four-man backline, with Elvin Cafarquliyev operating on the opposite side of the hosts' defence.
Albanian striker Redon Xhixha will continue as the lone striker, while Leandro Andrade, Yassine Benzia and Abdellah Zoubir will provide attacking support, with former Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield Town winger Adama Diakhaby expected to start on the bench.
Ljubljana, on the other hand, will be without the suspended David Sualehe on Thursday after he picked up two yellow cards in the first leg, meaning that Aljaz Krefl will likely come in to occupy the left-back spot.
At the opposite end of the pitch, strikers Saar Fadida and Pedro Lucas should continue up front in a 4-4-2 formation, while Svit Seslar and Rui Pedro will offer attacking support from the flanks.
Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Gugeshashvili; Bayramov, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Romao, Jankovic; Anrade, Benzia, Zoubir; Xhixha
NK Olimpija Ljubljana possible starting lineup:
Vidovsek; Silva, Ratnik, Muhamedbegovic, Krefl; Seslar, Doffo, Elsnik, Pedro; Fadida, Schwaizer
We say: Qarabag FK 2-2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana (Qarabag FK to win 4-2 on aggregate)
Given that Ljubljana must throw everything at Qarabag on Thursday, we can see the visitors causing plenty of problems in Baku, but the hosts will likely advance thanks to their efforts in the first leg.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Ben Morris
