Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 4pm UK
Stade de la Mosson
Montpellier3 - 2Auxerre
We said: Montpellier HSC 1-1 Auxerre
Both sides have struggled in the early part of the 2024-25 Ligue 1 season, and neither will want to extend their losing streak to four matches, which suggests this match may end in a cautious 1-1 draw. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 37.26%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 36.74% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Auxerre |
37.26% ( 0.28) | 25.99% ( 0.06) | 36.74% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 54.27% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.87% ( -0.28) | 50.13% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.9% ( -0.25) | 72.1% ( 0.25) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.81% ( 0.03) | 26.18% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.73% ( 0.04) | 61.27% ( -0.04) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.52% ( -0.33) | 26.48% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.33% ( -0.44) | 61.67% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
Montpellier HSC 37.26%
Auxerre 36.74%
Draw 25.99%
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Auxerre |
| 1-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 3.7% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.37% Total : 37.26% | 1-1 @ 12.34% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.99% | 0-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.2% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.32% Total : 36.74% |
How you voted: Montpellier vs Auxerre
Montpellier HSC
52.4%Draw
41.3%Auxerre
6.3%63
Head to Head
Jan 29, 2023 2pm
May 20, 2012 3pm
Aug 6, 2011 3pm
