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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 42.92%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | Newport County |
42.92% ( 0.02) | 25.38% ( 0) | 31.7% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 55.25% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.61% ( -0.02) | 48.39% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.47% ( -0.02) | 70.53% ( 0.02) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.52% ( 0) | 22.48% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.97% ( 0) | 56.03% ( -0) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.27% ( -0.02) | 28.73% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.43% ( -0.03) | 64.57% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.2% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.47% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.58% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.67% 4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.24% Total : 42.92% | 1-1 @ 12.02% 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 8.05% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.5% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.02% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.63% Total : 31.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |