The Bundesliga's weekend action includes the biggest of the Rhineland derbies on Saturday afternoon, with FC Koln hosting their rivals Borussia Monchengladbach at the RheinEnergieStadion.
The hosts have won just one of their last nine league outings heading into the derby, whilst the visitors continue to climb the league table during an upturn in recent form following a slow start to the campaign.
Match preview
© Reuters
After starting life at the Billy Goats in superb fashion, manager Steffen Baumgart and his side have fallen away in recent weeks and have dropped to 12th in the table heading into matchday 13 as a result.
However, considering the relegation troubles in recent years, a mid-table position at this stage is still regarded as a successful start to Baumgart's tenure, especially when taking into account the entertaining high energy style of play he has introduced.
In addition to this, despite the lack of victories over the past nine league fixtures, the Carnival side have still only fallen to three defeats all season, all of which have arrived away from home, and of which two of the three have arrived at the hands of title-challengers Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich.
As a result, Koln remain undefeated at the RheinEnergieStadion after six league outings in front of their own supporters, but that record will be tested in a feisty encounter on Saturday following Gladbach's successive victories there in each of the last two seasons.
Koln head into the derby on the back of a solid 1-1 draw at high-flying Mainz 05 last weekend, with Salih Ozcan's equaliser shortly after half time earning the point.
Based on the quality of chances created though, Baumgart will have been pleased with the point against a tough opponent, but disappointed that his players were not clinical enough to take all three after missing some glorious opportunities.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Gladbach head to their Rhineland rivals on Saturday on the back of a comfortable 4-0 victory over bottom-of-the-table Greuther Furth last weekend.
Jonas Hofmann, Florian Neuhaus and Alassane Plea all scored inside the opening 45 to kill off the contest before half time, before Hofmann added his second, and his side's fourth, before the hour mark.
That victory leaves Adi Hutter's side in ninth place during their hunt for a return to European football, following last season's disappointing finish under Marco Rose.
Although it is a far-from-ideal position as things stand, and results have taken their time in arriving for the Austrian boss, an incredibly competitive fight for the European places means the Foals are just four points off Freiburg in third place heading into the weekend.
Victory over Koln on Saturday could lift Gladbach into the European places, but would also provide a boost to morale within the squad as well as the supporters, who initially had to endure through a difficult beginning to Hutter's tenure this campaign.
Three defeats and one win from his opening five league fixtures meant it had been a tough transitional period following the largely successful spell under Rose, but following that with four wins and just one defeat from the next seven, with a 5-0 hammering of Bayern Munich in the DFB-Pokal in between, means there is a renewed hope that Hutter is the man to lead the Foals back into European football.
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Koln's impressive point at Mainz last week did not come at a cost, with top goalscorer Anthony Modeste being replaced at the halfway stage due to a groin strain.
His eight league goals this season will be sorely missed, whilst first-choice goalkeeper Timo Horn will also be missing at the other end of the pitch due to a knee injury picked up following that draw.
Marvin Schwabe will earn his first league appearance of the season in between the posts as a result, whilst Sebastian Andersson looks set to lead the line in the absence of Modeste.
Jannes Horn and Niklas Hauptmann are the other injury absences for Baumgart to deal with, although both are yet to feature so far this season anyway.
With no fresh injury concerns to report following the comfortable victory over Greuther, Hutter could name an unchanged lineup for his Gladbach side on Saturday.
Nico Elvedi remains absent from the back three, so Denis Zakaria will continue to fill in for him at the heart of the defence alongside Matthias Ginter and Ramy Bensebaini.
Breel Embolo also remains unavailable, so Plea will continue to lead the line after recapturing some of his best form across the last three fixtures following a poor start to the campaign by his standards.
Tony Jantschke and Mamadou Doucoure remain long-term absentees and join Elvedi and Embolo on the sidelines, as well as Christoph Kramer and Jordan Beyer.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Czichos, Hector; Skhiri, Ozcan; Kainz, Duda, Uth; Andersson
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Ginter, Zakaria, Bensebaini; Herrmann, Neuhaus, Kone, Scally; Stindl, Hofmann; Plea
We say: FC Koln 1-1 Borussia Monchengladbach
With the absence of Timo Horn and Anthony Modeste being big misses for Koln in this one, it would have been easy to sway towards a Monchengladbach win here.
However, Koln's unbeaten home record so far means we are predicting that they will still manage to pick up a point in the derby with the boost of the home crowd, as well as their ability to avoid defeats so far this season.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
