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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 50.67%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 24.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Leicester City |
24.87% ( -0.75) | 24.46% ( -0.2) | 50.67% ( 0.95) |
Both teams to score 53.38% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.39% ( 0.23) | 48.6% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.28% ( 0.21) | 70.72% ( -0.21) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.05% ( -0.51) | 33.95% ( 0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.38% ( -0.55) | 70.62% ( 0.55) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.81% ( 0.47) | 19.19% ( -0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.13% ( 0.78) | 50.87% ( -0.78) |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Leicester City |
1-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.25% Total : 24.87% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.45% | 0-1 @ 10.75% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 8.88% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 5.28% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 4.88% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.18% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.1) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 50.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 48 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 15 | 26 | 45 |
3 | Burnley | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 44 |
4 | Sunderland | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 43 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 35 |
7 | Watford | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 32 |
10 | Millwall | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 28 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 27 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 26 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 25 |
15 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
16 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 24 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 22 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
20 | Portsmouth | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
21 | Hull City | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 19 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 |
23 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 18 |
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