Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 25, 2023 at 7pm UK
Stadion Maksimir
Dinamo Zagreb4 - 0Astana
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Dinamo Zagreb 1-2 Hajduk Split
Friday, July 21 at 7pm in Croatian 1. HNL
Friday, July 21 at 7pm in Croatian 1. HNL
Last Game: Dinamo Tbilisi 1-2 Astana
Wednesday, July 19 at 5pm in Champions League
Wednesday, July 19 at 5pm in Champions League
| Team | Goals scored | Avg per game | Top scorer | |
| 1 | Osijek | 12 | 6.00 | Bukvic |
| 2 | Rijeka | 4 | 4.00 | Jankovic |
| 3 | Hajduk Split | 2 | 2.00 | Livaja |
| 4 | Slaven Koprivnica | 2 | 1.00 | Crnac |
| 5 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1.00 | Petkovic |
| 6 | Gorica | 1 | 1.00 | Vujnovic |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 1 | 1.00 | Erceg |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva | 1 | 1.00 | Bubanja |
| 9 | Varazdin | 1 | 1.00 | Brodic |
| 10 | Rudeš | 0 | 0.00 |
We said: Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 Astana
Dinamo Zagreb will be aiming to provide themselves with some breathing space ahead of making the lengthy journey to Kazakhstan for the second leg of this tie next week. There is little doubt that the Croatians have much more individual quality than Astana, and we can envisage them winning by a couple of goals to increase their chances of making it through to the third round of qualifying. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Zagreb win with a probability of 56.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Astana had a probability of 20.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Zagreb win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dinamo Zagreb would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dinamo Zagreb | Draw | Astana |
56.84% ( 0.02) | 23.14% | 20.02% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.32% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
