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Freiburg logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 33
May 15, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
Mage-Solar-Stadion
Bayern logo

Freiburg
2 - 2
Bayern

Gulde (29'), Gunter (81')
Sallai (17')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Lewandowski (26' pen.), Sane (53')
Davies (87'), Alaba (90')

Preview: Freiburg vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Freiburg take on Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the hosts still in the hunt for a place in next season's inaugural UEFA Europa Conference League.

The visitors, meanwhile, wrapped up a ninth successive Bundesliga title last weekend.


Match preview

Freiburg coach Christian Streich pictured on February 20, 2021© Reuters

Freiburg bounced back from a disappointing defeat to Hertha Berlin with an impressive 4-1 win away to FC Koln last weekend.

Dreadful play by the hosts inside their own penalty area allowed Nils Petersen to break the deadlock from close range, before Ermedin Demirovic doubled Christian Streich's side's lead only two minutes later after a slick move down the right flank.

Sebastian Andersson pulled one back after the break with a superb left-footed volley into the top corner, before Ondrej Duda spurned a glorious opportunity to level the proceedings by slipping as he struck his penalty, with the ball flying harmlessly over the bar as a result.

With Friedhelm Funkel's relegation threatened side desperately pushing for an equaliser in the closing stages, Vincenzo Grifo and Jonathan Schmid added to their pain by scoring two excellent counter-attacking goals in injury time to ensure Freiburg's outside hopes of competing in Europe remain intact heading into the final two matches of the season.

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski celebrates scoring their second goal on January 24, 2021© Reuters

Bayern's ninth consecutive league title was confirmed after RB Leipzig lost 3-2 to Borussia Dortmund earlier on Saturday, with Hansi Flick's side clearly benefitting from the pressure which had been lifted from their shoulders by dismantling Borussia Monchengladbach 6-0.

Robert Lewandowski moved only one goal behind Gerd Muller's record tally of 40 Bundesliga goals in a season by scoring his fifth league hat-trick of the campaign, with his acrobatic second the pick of the bunch, as he flew through the air to beat Yann Sommer at his near post with a superb scissor kick.

Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sane also got themselves on the scoresheet against an extremely passive Gladbach defence, with Tanguy Nianzou's 75th-minute dismissal doing little to add any life into Marco Rose's side's performance.

While Flick will be keen to leave the club on a high ahead of his summer departure, Bayern's main priority in their final two matches will be helping Lewandowski break Muller's long-standing record.

The Poland forward only needs two goals to do so, so it would be extremely surprising if he does not do it given how consistently prolific he has been this season.

Freiburg Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Leon Goretzka in action for Bayern Munich in September 2020© Reuters

Freiburg will remain without Dominique Heintz, who has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a back injury, while Manuel Gulde may not play again this campaign after suffering a calf injury during the win against Koln.

Keven Schlotterbeck should replace Gulde from the start, while Streich may bring Baptiste Santamaria back into the side in place of Petersen in order to reduce the pressure on his defence.

Mark Flekken should continue in goal having recovered from injury, with reports indicating that Streich has little interest in turning Florian Muller's loan move from Mainz 05 into a permanent one.

Bayern, meanwhile, will travel without Nianzou, who will not play again this season due to incurring a two-match suspension for his straight red card against Gladbach last weekend.

Leon Goretzka lasted just nine minutes as a second-half substitute before being withdrawn due to a hamstring injury, which is likely to keep him out of Bayern's last two matches as he prepares to get himself fit for Germany's Euro 2020 squad.

Eric Choupo-Moting is a doubt due to a back problem, while Ron-Thorben Hoffmann, Douglas Costa and Corentin Tolisso are unlikely to return from their long-term injuries before the end of the campaign.

With the title already wrapped up, Jamal Musiala is likely to start once again as the 18-year-old hopes to add to his top-flight experience.

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Keitel, Hofler, Santamaria; Sallai, Demirovic, Grifo

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Hernandez, Davies; Kimmich, Alaba; Coman, Muller, Musiala; Lewandowski


SM words green background

We say: Freiburg 1-4 Bayern Munich

With little at stake for either side, we expect Bayern to benefit from another open encounter.

While the Bavarians are unlikely to find Freiburg's defence as accommodating as Gladbach's last week, this could be the match in which Lewandowski sensationally breaks Muller's record for most goals scored in a Bundesliga season.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



ID:447257:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11706:
Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 71.84%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 12.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.49%) and 1-3 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.7%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Freiburg vs Bayern

Freiburg
14.5%
Draw
4.8%
Bayern Munich
80.6%
62
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Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick pictured on April 10, 2021
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