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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Ugo Humbert - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Wimbledon fourth-round match between Carlos Alcaraz and Ugo Humbert, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

After somehow surviving another titanic five-setter against Frances Tiafoe in the third round at Wimbledon, Carlos Alcaraz returns to Centre Court on Sunday, keen to push on against Ugo Humbert in round four.

The Spaniard had not dropped a set before facing his American opponent on Friday but was pushed to his limits against the world No. 29, and he now faces Humbert after the Frenchman's victory over Brandon Nakashima in the previous round.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz reacts at Wimbledon on July 1, 2024© Reuters

If Alcaraz retains the Wimbledon title won last year, the Spaniard will undoubtedly look back at his third-round victory over Tiafoe as a moment everything could have fallen apart.

The three-time Grand Slam champion was far from his best in sets one and three, struggling to match his American opponent's ball striking and intensity for most of the encounter on Centre Court, with several forehand errors undermining his ambition to make it into week two at the Championships.

However, the 2023 champion somehow took his game up a notch in the fourth-set tiebreak, and he did not look back, claiming the fifth rather easily to win 5-7, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-2.

Friday's match continued the Spaniard's impressive run in five-set battles, with the third-round success a ninth on the trot, including epic French Open triumphs over Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in Paris.

While Alcaraz is now 12-1 in Grand Slam matches that go the distance, the defending champion will hope for a far less stressful return to Centre Court on Sunday.

Hoping to oust last year's winner is Humbert, who needed two tiebreaks in a hard-fought 7-6(9), 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(6) over Nakashima.

That triumph meant the Frenchman has matched his previous best run on the lawns of Wimbledon (2019) after several disappointing eliminations in the last three years.

Humbert was defeated in a pair of tournament-opening matches in 2021 and 2023, either side of a third-round loss two years back to underscore his recent underperformance at SW19.

Now, he seeks a stunning big day against the No. 3 seed and three-time Slam champion, seeking to succeed where Tiafoe failed in the previous round.

While it remains to be seen if the world No. 26 stuns one of the pre-Championships favourites on Sunday, he hopes to count on his round-one battling qualities to go the distance and his know-how on the big points in round three to record a statement victory over the Spaniard.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Mark Lajal 7-6[3] 7-5 6-2
Second round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 7-6[5] 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Frances Tiafoe 5-7 6-2 4-6 7-6(2) 6-2

Ugo Humbert:

First round: vs. Alexander Shevchenko 6-1 4-6 7-6[2] 6-7[3] 6-1
Second round: vs. Botic van de Zandschulp 7-6[9] 6-1 6-3
Third round: vs. Brandon Nakashima 7-6[9] 6-3 6-7[5], 7-6[6]


Head To Head

Sunday's match-up will be the pair's first on the ATP Tour, adding to the intrigue and a sense of the unknown before both players battle on Centre Court.

Alcaraz may have lost at Queen's in the lead-up to Wimbledon, but the No. 3 seed aims to extend his 10-match winning streak at the Championships against his French opponent.

Despite struggling for wins against players ranked in the top 10 for years until his first in 2020, Humbert seeks a fourth in 2024 alone to record a career-high four in a calendar year, taking him to 13 Tour-level top-10 victories.


SM words green background

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Alcaraz was probably fortunate to avoid dropping a set in rounds one and two before Tiafoe forced him to five, and that should give Humbert hope of at least nicking one set off the Spaniard.

The defending champion should avoid a fourth-round upset in this one and book his quarter-final place.

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