Guimaraes2 - 1Arouca
Form, Standings, Stats
Thursday, January 11 at 8.15pm in Taca de Portugal
for
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in Taca de Portugal
We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 Arouca
Despite their previous humbling by Benfica, Arouca will remain confident of getting some from this contest. However, we cannot ignore the consistency of the home side, who should have enough know-how to come through with a maximum return, potentially by the odd goal in three. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.9%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
49.9% ( 4.91) | 25.96% ( -0.4) | 24.13% ( -4.51) |
| Both teams to score 48.14% ( -2.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.87% ( -1.39) | 55.13% ( 1.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.62% ( -1.16) | 76.37% ( 1.15) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.86% ( 1.66) | 22.13% ( -1.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.48% ( 2.44) | 55.51% ( -2.44) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.82% ( -4.54) | 38.17% ( 4.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.06% ( -4.65) | 74.93% ( 4.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.74% ( 1.25) 2-0 @ 9.61% ( 1.36)2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.88)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.35)3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.4)4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.21)Other @ 3.01% Total : 49.9% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.45)2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.44)Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.96% | 0-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.58) 1-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.91)0-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.83)1-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.58)2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.35)0-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.47)Other @ 1.58% Total : 24.13% |
