Vitoria de Guimaraes will be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top against Penafiel on Thursday, and even if Pacheco opts to freshen up his starting lineup, the hosts should still be strong enough to outscore their second-tier opponents en route to securing their spot in the quarter-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 66.35%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 13.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.17%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.56%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Penafiel
66.35% ( -0.17)	20.12% ( 0.11)	13.53% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 47.25% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.35% (

-0.3)

46.65% (

0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.09% (

-0.28)

68.91% (

0.29)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.83% (

-0.14)

13.17% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.13% (

-0.29)

39.87% (

0.29)

Penafiel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.41% (

-0.08)

45.59% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.6% (

-0.07)

81.4% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 66.34%

Penafiel 13.53%

Draw 20.12%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Penafiel
2-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.55% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.79% Total : 66.34%	1-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.75% Total : 20.12%	0-1 @ 4.72% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.22% Total : 13.53%