Taca da Liga | Group Stage

Nov 17, 2022 at 8.30pm UK

Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Penafiel
1 - 2
Moreirense

Rodrigo (30')
Batista (16'), Oliveira (50')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Petkov (90+55'), Luis (90+64')
Pacheco (23'), Platiny (27'), Garcia (52'), Rocha (58'), Franco (90+47')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Taca da Liga Group Stage clash between Penafiel and Moreirense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penafiel

Last Game: Penafiel 0-1 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, December 14 at 8.15pm in Taca da Liga

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Braga 2-1 Moreirense
Thursday, November 10 at 7.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 53.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 21.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.14%) and 1-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Penafiel win it was 1-0 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.

Result
Penafiel	Draw	Moreirense
21.93% ( -0.2)	24.89% ( 0.26)	53.18% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 48.73% (

-1.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.92% (

-1.21)

53.08% (

1.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.34% (

-1.04)

74.66% (

1.04)

Penafiel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.87% (

-0.89)

39.13% (

0.89)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.15% (

-0.84)

75.85% (

0.84)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.06% (

-0.5)

19.93% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.92% (

-0.81)

52.08% (

0.81)

Score Analysis

Penafiel 21.93%

Moreirense 53.17%

Draw 24.89%

Penafiel	Draw	Moreirense
1-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 3.43% 3-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.43% Total : 21.93%	1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.8% ( 0.37) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.83% Total : 24.89%	0-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.41) 0-2 @ 10.14% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 9.52% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 5.45% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 5.12% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 2.2% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.06% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.73% Total : 53.17%