Primeira Liga | Gameweek 16

Jan 6, 2024 at 6pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 3
Benfica

Montero (14'), Kouassi (76')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Silva (39'), Kokcu (47'), Musa (85')
Cabral (72'), Luis (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-4 Arouca
Thursday, December 28 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Benfica 3-0 Famalicao
Friday, December 29 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca look like a new side under Daniel Sousa and have rattled off wins over Boavista, Gil Vicente, and Estrela in recent weeks, which would have done wonders for their confidence. However, Benfica is a much better side than the hosts have faced recently, and while The Eagles are short-handed heading into this contest, we fancy them to grind out another three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 64.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.18%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Benfica
15.78% ( 0.09)	20.08% ( 0.06)	64.13% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 53.08% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.18% (

-0.09)

41.82% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.78% (

-0.09)

64.22% (

0.09)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.56% (

0.06)

39.44% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.86% (

0.06)

76.13% (

-0.06)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.66% (

-0.07)

12.34% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.83% (

-0.14)

38.16% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Arouca 15.78%

Benfica 64.13%

Draw 20.08%

Arouca	Draw	Benfica
1-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.94% Total : 15.78%	1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.08%	0-2 @ 10.65% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0) 0-3 @ 7.43% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 6.91% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.89% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 3.62% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.5% Total : 64.13%