Taca da Liga | Group Stage

Oct 31, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 2
Benfica

Montero (25'), Fernandes (39'), Kouassi (57')

FT(HT: 0-1)

di Maria (26'), Cabral (74')
Silva (35'), Guedes (45')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Taca da Liga clash between Arouca and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Arouca 0-1 Moreirense
Friday, October 27 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Benfica

All competitions

Last Game: Benfica 1-1 Casa Pia
Saturday, October 28 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Benfica will be licking their lips as they take on an out-of-sorts Arouca side, who have lost each of their previous eight meetings across all competitions. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we fancy As Aguias to come away with all three points at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 18.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.5%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Benfica
18.38% ( 0.1)	22.11% ( 0.05)	59.51% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 51.79% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.76% (

-0.07)

46.23% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.47% (

-0.06)

68.52% (

0.06)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.04% (

0.08)

38.95% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.32% (

0.08)

75.68% (

-0.08)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.84% (

-0.08)

15.15% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.25% (

-0.14)

43.74% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Arouca 18.38%

Benfica 59.49%

Draw 22.11%

Arouca	Draw	Benfica
1-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.95% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.22% Total : 18.38%	1-1 @ 10.5% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.11%	0-1 @ 11.13% 0-2 @ 10.5% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.61% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 6.23% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.12% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.44% Total : 59.49%